Saturday, May 21, 2005

What happens if we leave Iraq *now*?

I've heard all sorts of dire predictions of what happens in Iraq if we just pick up and leave. I consider all those predictions to be so much bull****. Iraq is not Somalia, filled with ignorant tribesmen. Iraq is a civilized, well-educated country with enough natural resources to sustain its citizens. The reality is more likely to be similar to what happened the *last* time we toppled the government of Iraq -- and left. After about a week of chaos, one strongman managed to accumulate enough support in order to take charge, and he swiftly put the majority of the country in order, other than the northern Kurdish portion which even today is a de-facto "Kurdistan". He did this by playing off the various factions against each other, giving the Shia some special priviliges that they didn't previously have such as the right to run their own religious schools for girls, giving the tribes autonomy over civil matters in their areas, etc. as well as by judicious application of force where necessary, Oh sure, he probably killed 100,000 Iraqis in the process, but we've killed that many Iraqis too, and we haven't even restored order, and are nowhere near even *attempting* the complicated balancing act that kept that strongman, Saddam Hussein, unsteadily perched on top of that powder keg for close to 10 years after we toppled him the first time.

In short, I don't believe there's going to be a civil war in Iraq, other than perhaps on the same lines as happened in Saddam's time (i.e., the Kurds get their Kurdistan up in the north, and the Shia and Sunni come to an arrangement in the south). If we pulled out today there'd be a lot of bloodshed for a couple of months -- Saddam killed maybe 100K people last time we did that -- but sooner or later, a "Saddam Lite" would step up and restore order and everybody in Iraq, at least, would breathe a sigh of relief.

Of course that would be the end of the neo-cons dream of democracy in Iraq, so they're going to fight it tooth and nail, but in my opinion the neocons have already proven it's impossible to impose democracy at gunpoint -- it's time to just get out and let the Iraqis handle what's of interest to the Iraqis, only intervening if our own national interests are at issue. A people has to be ready for democracy before democracy is possible. As the United States proves, not all nations have a population that is ready or willing to do what it takes to create and/or maintain a working democracy, and all that happens if you try to impose it at gunpoint is a lot of dead people.

The end result is the same, anyhow. The Iraqis are, in the end going to detirmine what form of government they have in their country, no matter how much we attempt to impose a government at gunpoint. All we're doing is prolonging the bloodshed.

-- Badtux the Realist Penguin

Comments:

Trolling again, Penguin? ah, don't go changiing.
# posted by The Heretik : 21/5/05 1:03 PM  

if we leave "there will be civil war"...
as opposed to "if we stay there IS civil war"?? Well, Duhh!

thanks 'tux!
# posted by bobby : 21/5/05 8:55 PM  

Jillian, I am a penguin of many personalities. At various points in time I have been the Attorney General, Bush's Brain, and only the Great Penguin knows who else. You just caught the "Earnest eater of herring" personality here, that's all. '

-- Badtux the Multiple Personality Penguin
# posted by BadTux : 21/5/05 9:29 PM  

I think we are now delaying the inevitable. They will either be going to war amongst themselves, or they will managed somehow to come together and form a stable government.

In either case, we are doing nothing but looking like inapt fools.
# posted by Rook : 23/5/05 7:10 AM  

I briefly flirted with the "We broke it, we need to fix it" notion.

Briefly.

I say, out now. Not gonna change the consequences of this fiasco by staying. Out now.
# posted by DBK : 23/5/05 12:19 PM  

Howdy tux.. I like the way you think.. Only problem is that comparing Iraq now to Iraq 15 years ago is not going to lead to the correct conclusions.

15 years ago there was only one organized army in Iraq - Saddam's. If we had invaded in 2003 and left immediately then the Baath would come back to power very quickly.

Now we have established a Shia army and the foreign jihadis have come in to muck up the picture. If we leave now the Sunnis and the Shiites are going to massacre each other and I don't know who will win... In the end somebody is going to come to power, but whether it will be Saddam Lite, or Khomeini Lite is unclear...

So there probably will be a civil war. Thats perhaps not a good reason to stay, but its something to consider..
# posted by Bubba : 27/5/05 3:27 PM  

There's *ALREADY* a civil war, Bubba. And our troops are in the middle of it, getting shot at by both sides.

Realistically, the Iraqis are going to detirmine their destiny. The United States lacks the willpower to do what it takes to impose its own will All we're dong by staying there is delaying the day of reckoning.

-- Badtux the Realist Penguin
# posted by BadTux : 27/5/05 9:11 PM  

Penguin, I totally agree. The fighting is BECAUSE we are there. All we do is walk away, let them have their country to do with as they please. Stop the killing and we are all ahead.
# posted by Anonymous : 15/2/07 8:21 PM  

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